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\/><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201c\u56db\u529b\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u6784\u5efa\u4eba\u751f\u6548\u7387\u7cfb\u7edf<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u505a\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u4e8b\u201d\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u529b\u548c\u6218\u7565\u529b\u51b3\u5b9a\uff1b\u201c\u6b63\u786e\u5730\u505a\u4e8b\u201d\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u529b\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8ba4\u77e5\u529b\u3001\u6218\u7565\u529b\u3001\u5b66\u4e60\u529b\u3001\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\uff0c\u8fd9\u56db\u529b\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5e72\u51fa\u6210\u7ee9\u3001\u62ff\u5230\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u201c\u56db\u529b\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u56db\u529b\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u6784\u5efa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4eba\u751f\u6548\u7387\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u6b63\u786e\u5730\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u5e72\u51fa\u6210\u7ee9\uff0c\u8f7b\u677e\u62ff\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>1.\u8ba4\u77e5\u529b\uff1a\u770b\u900f\u4e8b<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6625\u79cb\u672b\u5e74\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u66fe\u5b50\u5728\u5176\u6563\u6587\u300a\u5927\u5b66\u300b\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u7269\u6709\u672c\u672b\uff0c\u4e8b\u6709\u7ec8\u59cb\u3002\u77e5\u6240\u5148\u540e\uff0c\u5219\u8fd1\u9053\u77e3\u3002\u201d\u610f\u601d\u662f\u8bf4\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5f88\u591a\u4e8b\u7269\u90fd\u6709\u5f00\u7aef\u548c\u7ed3\u5c3e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u5bf9\u5f85\u4e8b\u7269\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u77e5\u9053\u5b70\u5148\u5b70\u540e\uff0c\u5b70\u672c\u5b70\u672b\uff0c\u533a\u522b\u5bf9\u5f85\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4fbf\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e86\u6210\u529f\u4e4b\u9053\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u5723\u8d24\u4eec\u65e9\u5c31\u544a\u8bc9\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u7b54\u6848\u2014\u2014\u770b\u900f\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u672c\u8d28\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5e72\u51fa\u6210\u7ee9\u7684\u5e95\u5c42\u903b\u8f91\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u770b\u900f\u4e8b\u7269\u672c\u8d28\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u77e5\u9053\u6838\u5fc3\u548c\u4e3b\u8981\u77db\u76fe\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u62ff\u5230\u7ed3\u679c\u3001\u5e72\u51fa\u6210\u7ee9\u9700\u8981\u4ece\u4f55\u5904\u7740\u624b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u52aa\u529b\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u4e8b\uff0c\u65e2\u80fd\u6e38\u5203\u6709\u4f59\uff0c\u53c8\u80fd\u4e8b\u534a\u529f\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8ba4\u77e5\u529b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5e72\u51fa\u6210\u7ee9\u7684\u5e95\u5c42\u903b\u8f91\u3002<\/strong>\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u4ece\u5e72\u51fa\u6210\u7ee9\u3001\u62ff\u5230\u7ed3\u679c\u5230\u8d85\u8d8a\u81ea\u6211\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\uff0c\u662f\u4ece\u63d0\u5347\u8ba4\u77e5\u529b\u5e76\u8fdb\u5165\u826f\u6027\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u523b\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u8ba4\u77e5\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5224\u65ad\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u5e95\u5c42\u903b\u8f91\u3002\u8ba4\u77e5\u529b\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u900f\u8fc7\u73b0\u8c61\u770b\u900f\u4e8b\u7269\u672c\u8d28\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8b\u7269\u8ba4\u8bc6\u7684\u6e05\u6670\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u770b\u900f\u4e8b\u7269\u672c\u8d28\u7684\u6df1\u6d45\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u8ba4\u77e5\u529b\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u3001\u770b\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u81ea\u6211\u4eec\u5f53\u4e0b\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u3002\u4eba\u5f88\u96be\u83b7\u5f97\u8ba4\u77e5\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4e00\u7fa4\u4eba\u4e3a\u4e86\u8d5a\u94b1\u6bcf\u5929\u7d2f\u6b7b\u7d2f\u6d3b\u5730\u6dd8\u91d1\uff0c\u5374\u4e00\u5757\u91d1\u5b50\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6dd8\u5230\uff0c\u800c\u6709\u7684\u4eba\u5728\u6dd8\u91d1\u573a\u65c1\u8fb9\u5f00\u4e86\u996d\u5e97\u3001\u65c5\u9986\uff0c\u8d5a\u5f97\u76c6\u6ee1\u94b5\u6ee1\u3002\u6dd8\u91d1\u7684\u4eba\u4e0d\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5f00\u996d\u5e97\u3001\u5f00\u65c5\u9986\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u59cb\u81f3\u7ec8\u6839\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u60f3\u5230\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5f00\u996d\u5e97\u3001\u5f00\u65c5\u9986\u8d5a\u94b1\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8ba4\u77e5\u529b\u9ad8\u4f4e\u7684\u533a\u522b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8ba4\u77e5\u529b\u9ad8\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u770b\u900f\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u672c\u8d28\uff0c\u505a\u51fa\u5bf9\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002<strong>\u8ba4\u77e5\u529b\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u5426\u505a\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u4e8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u6bd4\u6b63\u786e\u5730\u505a\u4e8b\u91cd\u8981<\/strong><strong>100<\/strong><strong>\u500d\u3002<\/strong>\u8ba4\u77e5\u529b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u505a\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u4e8b\u7684\u5e95\u5c42\u903b\u8f91\u3002\u8ba4\u77e5\u7a81\u7834\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7ad9\u7a33\u811a\u8ddf\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4eba\u751f\u53cd\u51fb\u7684\u7edd\u4f73\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u4ece\u5e72\u51fa\u6210\u7ee9\u3001\u62ff\u5230\u7ed3\u679c\u5230\u8d85\u8d8a\u81ea\u6211\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4ece\u63d0\u5347\u8ba4\u77e5\u529b\u5e76\u8fdb\u5165\u826f\u6027\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u523b\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u8ba4\u77e5\u9ad8\u4f4e\u201d\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u8457\u540d\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u9093\u5b81\u2014\u2014\u514b\u9c81\u683c\u6548\u5e94\uff08Dunning &#8211; Kruger 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